🔔 At The Bell In Asia: July 3, 2025 – The Day the Market Played Hard to Get! 🔔
☀️ Morning Mayhem: The Great Yield Tug-of-War (08:00 - 12:00 HKT) ☀️
"Morning, team! Let's see what mischief the market has cooked up today!" I chirped, already scanning my screens. Overnight, US equities were back to their record-breaking ways, but Treasuries decided to be contrarians, with yields ticking up. My first thought? "Oh, great, another day of trying to figure out if we're following the US or doing our own thing!"
Singapore's Steady Beat: Our Lion City bonds were their usual calm selves. The 6-month T-Bills auction was on, with a S$1.60 billion size. Everyone was watching where that yield would land. Singapore Government Bonds (SIGB) were a bit mixed, some yields up, some down – typical morning indecision.
Malaysia's Rate Cut Whispers: My Malaysian colleagues were buzzing about the 7Y GII auction. "Strong demand expected!" they predicted, "especially with those July rate cut hopes!" The auction was a Sukuk (Islamic bond), which broadens its appeal. Initial bids were a bit slow, but then they picked up.
Indonesia's Fiscal Follies (But Bonds Shrug): Indonesia's Finance Minister had warned about a wider budget deficit yesterday. My eyebrows raised. "Fiscal slippage? That's usually a red flag!" But the market? It mostly shrugged. Indonesian government bonds (INDOGB) were actually seeing some "upward movement" in prices. It seems the market was more focused on yesterday's strong auction results and the risk-on mood. "Bonds, you're a fickle bunch!" I muttered.
The New Bond Parade (Still Going Strong!): The primary market was still overflowing with fresh paper:
Q&M Dental Group (Singapore): An unrated 3-year SGD Senior bond with an IPT of 4.35% area. "A dental bond? Now I've seen everything!" I chuckled.
Rabobank Australia: Launched a new A$ 5yr note, split between floating and fixed rates. Their orderbook quickly swelled to over A$2.7 billion! "Aussie banks always bring the crowds!"
Suncorp Bank: Also in Australia, they launched a 1-year Senior MTNs.
Softbank Group: Their USD and EUR senior notes were trading hot. "These guys are like a rock band on tour, new hits every day!"
Korea Gas & NH Investment & Securities: These Korean giants were also seeing their newly priced bonds trade actively.
China Modern Dairy: Their new sustainability bonds were trading above reoffer. "Who knew dairy could be so exciting?"
Bright Food (EUR): Their Euro sustainable notes were also trading well.
UniCredit's German Dream: News broke that UniCredit's CEO was still trying to woo German officials about a potential Commerzbank takeover. "Talk about persistence! It's like a financial rom-com, but with less romance and more balance sheets."
🍝 Midday Madness: The Auction Showdown & Unexpected Twists (12:00 - 15:00 HKT) 🍝
"Okay, the plot thickens!" I thought, as lunch became a distant memory. The market was a mix of calculated moves and sudden jitters.
Singapore's T-Bill Verdict: The 6-month T-Bills auction results came in. Cut-off yield was 1.85%, average was 1.64%. "Lower than expected! That's a sign of strong demand, even if it makes yields less juicy for new buyers."
Malaysia's MGII Auction Success: The 7Y MGII auction results were out, and they were strong! Average yield of 3.367%, with a healthy bid-to-cover ratio. "Looks like those July rate cut hopes are still very much alive!" My desk saw a "scramble to lift offers" in the 5-15 year space, pushing yields lower.
Indonesia's Bond Rotation: Indonesian government bonds saw some "profit-taking" from local sellers, but there was also "decent buying" in the 10Y and 15Y benchmarks. "It's like a game of musical chairs, but with bonds!" I noted that the 15Y looked "undervalued" compared to the 10Y.
LREIT's Rental Drama: Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT) issued a legal demand to Cathay Cineplexes for overdue rent. "Ouch! Even big REITs have tenant troubles." Good news, though: they found a replacement tenant, Shaw Theatres.
Softbank's Rollercoaster: The newly issued Softbank Group bonds had a wild ride. After opening strong, "relentless fast money selling" pushed them below reoffer by midday. "Classic short-term traders, always taking their profits!" But then, as Europe woke up, some buying started to emerge. "Never a dull moment with Softbank!"
Taiwanese Lifers Shine: In Taiwan, insurance companies (lifers) like Cathay Life (CATLIF) and Shin Kong Life (SHIKON) were seeing strong buying, pushing their spreads tighter. "Everyone loves a reliable insurer, especially when they're getting cheaper!"
🌆 Afternoon Action: The Final Sprint & Global Connections (15:00 - Close HKT) 🌆
"Alright, last leg! Let's see who's making the final moves!" I yelled, as the trading floor hummed with renewed energy.
Q&M Dental's Tight Smile: Q&M Dental Group's 3-year SGD bond got its Final Price Guidance (FPG) at a tight 3.95%. "From 4.35% to 3.95%? That's a serious tightening! Shows how much demand there was for this unrated name." Books were over SGD600 million.
Malaysia's Rate Cut Bets Solidify: The strong MGII auction results, combined with the overall market tone, solidified bets for a July rate cut from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM). "The market's practically screaming for it!"
Singapore's Long-End Squeeze: Singapore Government Bonds (SIGB) saw a "short squeeze" in the ultra-long end (20Y to 50Y bonds), pushing yields lower. "Someone got caught short, big time!"
Indonesia & US: A Trade Deal on the Horizon! Big news broke: Indonesia and the US are set to sign a trade MOU on July 7th, including $34 billion in goods purchases and investment deals. "That's a huge positive for Indonesia! Trade deals are like rocket fuel for bonds."
Rabobank Australia Prices: The A$1.5 billion Rabobank Australia 5-year bond priced at 3mBBSW/SQASW+86bps, with a split between floating and fixed. A huge success!
Softbank's Late Rally: After its midday dip, the new Softbank Group bonds staged a comeback! The 10-year bond was the "outperformer," closing above its reoffer price. "Never count out a big name, even when the fast money tries to push it down!"
Taiwan Lifers Continue to Outperform: SHIKON 35s were the "outperformer of the day" in Taiwan, with spreads tightening significantly. "These guys are on a roll!"
Trader's Takeaway: What I Saw Today
Today was a masterclass in market resilience and the power of new issuance. Even with US rates ticking up, Asia largely held its ground, fueled by strong local demand and a seemingly endless appetite for fresh bonds. We saw the "fast money" try to push down new issues like Softbank, but the "real money" buyers stepped in, showing their conviction. It's a clear sign that while macro headlines create noise, the underlying demand for quality credit, especially from new issues, is incredibly robust. My biggest takeaway? Don't let short-term jitters distract you from long-term value, and always keep an eye on those orderbooks!
Tomorrow's Crystal Ball: July 4, 2025 Preview
Get ready for a quieter day, but don't switch off completely!
US Independence Day (Holiday!): The US markets are closed! This means thinner trading volumes globally, so expect less action and potentially more volatile moves on smaller trades.
Malaysia OPR Preview: CIMB Research is dropping its preview for Malaysia's Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) decision next week. Expect more chatter about a potential rate cut.
Indonesia SRBI Auction: Indonesia is holding a short-term bond (SRBI) auction.
ASEAN Webinar: A big webinar on "Impact of escalating global volatility on ASEAN" is happening. Could provide some fresh insights.
Trump's Tariff Talk (Still!): The July 9th deadline is still looming. Even with the US out, any new comments could cause ripples.
My Top Trade Ideas for Tomorrow: Play Like a Pro!
Here are some ideas I'm eyeing for tomorrow, based on today's action. Remember, this is my view, not financial advice – always do your own homework!
Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) 3Y Senior Notes – The Sweet Yield!
Rationale: This unrated 3-year SGD bond tightened significantly from its initial guidance to a Final Price Guidance (FPG) of 3.95%. With books over SGD600 million, it shows strong demand for a relatively higher-yielding, short-dated SGD corporate. The PB rebate (25 cents) also makes it attractive for private bank clients.
Simple Explanation: This new bond from a dental company is paying a surprisingly high interest rate for a short time. Lots of people wanted it, so the price got tighter, but it still offers a sweet deal compared to other Singaporean bonds.
Catalyst: Strong post-pricing secondary market performance due to pent-up demand and attractive yield. Continued "hunt for yield" in the SGD market.
Invalidation Catalyst: Any unexpected negative news specific to Q&M Dental Group or the Singapore healthcare sector. A sudden spike in broader SGD rates that makes this yield less appealing.
Softbank Group (SOFTBK) 10Y USD Bond (7.5% 2035) – The Comeback Kid!
Rationale: After a midday dip due to "fast money" selling, this 10-year bond staged a strong comeback, closing above its reoffer price. This indicates robust underlying demand from "real money" investors who see long-term value. Its large size and liquidity make it a key benchmark.
Simple Explanation: This long-term bond from a big Japanese tech investor had a rocky start, but smart, patient investors bought it up, pushing its price back up. It's a sign that the big players believe in its long-term value, even if short-term traders try to push it down.
Catalyst: Continued buying from institutional investors in the US and Europe who missed out on initial allocations. Positive sentiment around Softbank's underlying investments.
Invalidation Catalyst: Significant negative news related to Softbank Group's investment portfolio or a broad market sell-off that disproportionately impacts higher-beta names.
Taiwanese Insurance Bonds (e.g., SHIKON 35s) – The Consistent Outperformer!
Rationale: Taiwanese lifers like SHIKON 35s were consistently strong performers today, with spreads tightening significantly and being called the "outperformer of the day" in Taiwan. This suggests strong, sustained demand from onshore investors.
Simple Explanation: These bonds from Taiwanese insurance companies are quietly doing very well, getting more expensive because local investors love them. They're a steady performer that might keep climbing.
Catalyst: Continued strong local demand for insurance sector bonds. A broader "hunt for yield" that pushes investors into slightly less liquid but higher-yielding Asian credits.
Invalidation Catalyst: A shift in local Taiwanese investor sentiment or unexpected regulatory changes impacting the insurance sector.
Indonesia Government Bonds (INDOGB) 15Y Benchmark – The Undervalued Gem!
Rationale: Today's trading commentary suggested the 15Y benchmark (currently at 6.91%) appeared "undervalued" as it usually trades within a 15-25bps range from the 10Y. This indicates a potential relative value opportunity.
Simple Explanation: Think of it like this: the 15-year bond from Indonesia looks cheaper than it should be compared to its 10-year cousin. If the market corrects this, the 15-year bond's price could go up.
Catalyst: Investors rotating out of shorter-dated Indonesian bonds into the relatively cheaper 15Y. Continued strong overall demand for Indonesian assets.
Invalidation Catalyst: The 10Y bond widens significantly, making the 15Y less attractive on a relative basis. A sudden deterioration in Indonesia's fiscal outlook or credit quality.
Disclaimer: This is your trader's honest take, not financial advice! The bond market is a beast, and it can bite. Always do your own research, understand the risks, and consult a financial pro before you put your hard-earned cash on the line. Now, go get he final bell has rung, and let me tell you, today was less of a wild rollercoaster and more of a subtle, strategic chess match! Your favorite (and perpetually caffeinated) trader here, ready to dissect every smirk, shrug, and sudden sprint from today's Asian bond markets. Grab your favorite beverage, because we're diving deep into the trenches of July 3rd!
☀️ Morning Mayhem: The Great Yield Tug-of-War (08:00 - 12:00 HKT) ☀️
"Morning, team! Let's see what mischief the market has cooked up today!" I chirped, already scanning my screens. Overnight, US equities were back to their record-breaking ways, but Treasuries decided to be contrarians, with yields ticking up. My first thought? "Oh, great, another day of trying to figure out if we're following the US or doing our own thing!"
Singapore's Steady Beat: Our Lion City bonds were their usual calm selves. The 6-month T-Bills auction was on, with a S$1.60 billion size. Everyone was watching where that yield would land. Singapore Government Bonds (SIGB) were a bit mixed, some yields up, some down – typical morning indecision.
Malaysia's Rate Cut Whispers: My Malaysian colleagues were buzzing about the 7Y GII auction. "Strong demand expected!" they predicted, "especially with those July rate cut hopes!" The auction was a Sukuk (Islamic bond), which broadens its appeal. Initial bids were a bit slow, but then they picked up.
Indonesia's Fiscal Follies (But Bonds Shrug): Indonesia's Finance Minister had warned about a wider budget deficit yesterday. My eyebrows raised. "Fiscal slippage? That's usually a red flag!" But the market? It mostly shrugged. Indonesian government bonds (INDOGB) were actually seeing some "upward movement" in prices. It seems the market was more focused on yesterday's strong auction results and the risk-on mood. "Bonds, you're a fickle bunch!" I muttered.
The New Bond Parade (Still Going Strong!): The primary market was still overflowing with fresh paper:
Q&M Dental Group (Singapore): An unrated 3-year SGD Senior bond with an IPT of 4.35% area. "A dental bond? Now I've seen everything!" I chuckled.
Rabobank Australia: Launched a new A$ 5yr note, split between floating and fixed rates. Their orderbook quickly swelled to over A$2.7 billion! "Aussie banks always bring the crowds!"
Suncorp Bank: Also in Australia, they launched a 1-year Senior MTNs.
Softbank Group: Their USD and EUR senior notes were trading hot. "These guys are like a rock band on tour, new hits every day!"
Korea Gas & NH Investment & Securities: These Korean giants were also seeing their newly priced bonds trade actively.
China Modern Dairy: Their new sustainability bonds were trading above reoffer. "Who knew dairy could be so exciting?"
Bright Food (EUR): Their Euro sustainable notes were also trading well.
UniCredit's German Dream: News broke that UniCredit's CEO was still trying to woo German officials about a potential Commerzbank takeover. "Talk about persistence! It's like a financial rom-com, but with less romance and more balance sheets."
🍝 Midday Madness: The Auction Showdown & Unexpected Twists (12:00 - 15:00 HKT) 🍝
"Okay, the plot thickens!" I thought, as lunch became a distant memory. The market was a mix of calculated moves and sudden jitters.
Singapore's T-Bill Verdict: The 6-month T-Bills auction results came in. Cut-off yield was 1.85%, average was 1.64%. "Lower than expected! That's a sign of strong demand, even if it makes yields less juicy for new buyers."
Malaysia's MGII Auction Success: The 7Y MGII auction results were out, and they were strong! Average yield of 3.367%, with a healthy bid-to-cover ratio. "Looks like those July rate cut hopes are still very much alive!" My desk saw a "scramble to lift offers" in the 5-15 year space, pushing yields lower.
Indonesia's Bond Rotation: Indonesian government bonds saw some "profit-taking" from local sellers, but there was also "decent buying" in the 10Y and 15Y benchmarks. "It's like a game of musical chairs, but with bonds!" I noted that the 15Y looked "undervalued" compared to the 10Y.
LREIT's Rental Drama: Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT) issued a legal demand to Cathay Cineplexes for overdue rent. "Ouch! Even big REITs have tenant troubles." Good news, though: they found a replacement tenant, Shaw Theatres.
Softbank's Rollercoaster: The newly issued Softbank Group bonds had a wild ride. After opening strong, "relentless fast money selling" pushed them below reoffer by midday. "Classic short-term traders, always taking their profits!" But then, as Europe woke up, some buying started to emerge. "Never a dull moment with Softbank!"
Taiwanese Lifers Shine: In Taiwan, insurance companies (lifers) like Cathay Life (CATLIF) and Shin Kong Life (SHIKON) were seeing strong buying, pushing their spreads tighter. "Everyone loves a reliable insurer, especially when they're getting cheaper!"
🌆 Afternoon Action: The Final Sprint & Global Connections (15:00 - Close HKT) 🌆
"Alright, last leg! Let's see who's making the final moves!" I yelled, as the trading floor hummed with renewed energy.
Q&M Dental's Tight Smile: Q&M Dental Group's 3-year SGD bond got its Final Price Guidance (FPG) at a tight 3.95%. "From 4.35% to 3.95%? That's a serious tightening! Shows how much demand there was for this unrated name." Books were over SGD600 million.
Malaysia's Rate Cut Bets Solidify: The strong MGII auction results, combined with the overall market tone, solidified bets for a July rate cut from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM). "The market's practically screaming for it!"
Singapore's Long-End Squeeze: Singapore Government Bonds (SIGB) saw a "short squeeze" in the ultra-long end (20Y to 50Y bonds), pushing yields lower. "Someone got caught short, big time!"
Indonesia & US: A Trade Deal on the Horizon! Big news broke: Indonesia and the US are set to sign a trade MOU on July 7th, including $34 billion in goods purchases and investment deals. "That's a huge positive for Indonesia! Trade deals are like rocket fuel for bonds."
Rabobank Australia Prices: The A$1.5 billion Rabobank Australia 5-year bond priced at 3mBBSW/SQASW+86bps, with a split between floating and fixed. A huge success!
Softbank's Late Rally: After its midday dip, the new Softbank Group bonds staged a comeback! The 10-year bond was the "outperformer," closing above its reoffer price. "Never count out a big name, even when the fast money tries to push it down!"
Taiwan Lifers Continue to Outperform: SHIKON 35s were the "outperformer of the day" in Taiwan, with spreads tightening significantly. "These guys are on a roll!"
Trader's Takeaway: What I Saw Today
Today was a masterclass in market resilience and the power of new issuance. Even with US rates ticking up, Asia largely held its ground, fueled by strong local demand and a seemingly endless appetite for fresh bonds. We saw the "fast money" try to push down new issues like Softbank, but the "real money" buyers stepped in, showing their conviction. It's a clear sign that while macro headlines create noise, the underlying demand for quality credit, especially from new issues, is incredibly robust. My biggest takeaway? Don't let short-term jitters distract you from long-term value, and always keep an eye on those orderbooks!
Tomorrow's Crystal Ball: July 4, 2025 Preview
Get ready for a quieter day, but don't switch off completely!
US Independence Day (Holiday!): The US markets are closed! This means thinner trading volumes globally, so expect less action and potentially more volatile moves on smaller trades.
Malaysia OPR Preview: CIMB Research is dropping its preview for Malaysia's Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) decision next week. Expect more chatter about a potential rate cut.
Indonesia SRBI Auction: Indonesia is holding a short-term bond (SRBI) auction.
ASEAN Webinar: A big webinar on "Impact of escalating global volatility on ASEAN" is happening. Could provide some fresh insights.
Trump's Tariff Talk (Still!): The July 9th deadline is still looming. Even with the US out, any new comments could cause ripples.
My Top Trade Ideas for Tomorrow: Play Like a Pro!
Here are some ideas I'm eyeing for tomorrow, based on today's action. Remember, this is my view, not financial advice – always do your own homework!
Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) 3Y Senior Notes – The Sweet Yield!
Rationale: This unrated 3-year SGD bond tightened significantly from its initial guidance to a Final Price Guidance (FPG) of 3.95%. With books over SGD600 million, it shows strong demand for a relatively higher-yielding, short-dated SGD corporate. The PB rebate (25 cents) also makes it attractive for private bank clients.
Simple Explanation: This new bond from a dental company is paying a surprisingly high interest rate for a short time. Lots of people wanted it, so the price got tighter, but it still offers a sweet deal compared to other Singaporean bonds.
Catalyst: Strong post-pricing secondary market performance due to pent-up demand and attractive yield. Continued "hunt for yield" in the SGD market.
Invalidation Catalyst: Any unexpected negative news specific to Q&M Dental Group or the Singapore healthcare sector. A sudden spike in broader SGD rates that makes this yield less appealing.
Softbank Group (SOFTBK) 10Y USD Bond (7.5% 2035) – The Comeback Kid!
Rationale: After a midday dip due to "fast money" selling, this 10-year bond staged a strong comeback, closing above its reoffer price. This indicates robust underlying demand from "real money" investors who see long-term value. Its large size and liquidity make it a key benchmark.
Simple Explanation: This long-term bond from a big Japanese tech investor had a rocky start, but smart, patient investors bought it up, pushing its price back up. It's a sign that the big players believe in its long-term value, even if short-term traders try to push it down.
Catalyst: Continued buying from institutional investors in the US and Europe who missed out on initial allocations. Positive sentiment around Softbank's underlying investments.
Invalidation Catalyst: Significant negative news related to Softbank Group's investment portfolio or a broad market sell-off that disproportionately impacts higher-beta names.
Taiwanese Insurance Bonds (e.g., SHIKON 35s) – The Consistent Outperformer!
Rationale: Taiwanese lifers like SHIKON 35s were consistently strong performers today, with spreads tightening significantly and being called the "outperformer of the day" in Taiwan. This suggests strong, sustained demand from onshore investors.
Simple Explanation: These bonds from Taiwanese insurance companies are quietly doing very well, getting more expensive because local investors love them. They're a steady performer that might keep climbing.
Catalyst: Continued strong local demand for insurance sector bonds. A broader "hunt for yield" that pushes investors into slightly less liquid but higher-yielding Asian credits.
Invalidation Catalyst: A shift in local Taiwanese investor sentiment or unexpected regulatory changes impacting the insurance sector.
Indonesia Government Bonds (INDOGB) 15Y Benchmark – The Undervalued Gem!
Rationale: Today's trading commentary suggested the 15Y benchmark (currently at 6.91%) appeared "undervalued" as it usually trades within a 15-25bps range from the 10Y. This indicates a potential relative value opportunity.
Simple Explanation: Think of it like this: the 15-year bond from Indonesia looks cheaper than it should be compared to its 10-year cousin. If the market corrects this, the 15-year bond's price could go up.
Catalyst: Investors rotating out of shorter-dated Indonesian bonds into the relatively cheaper 15Y. Continued strong overall demand for Indonesian assets.
Invalidation Catalyst: The 10Y bond widens significantly, making the 15Y less attractive on a relative basis. A sudden deterioration in Indonesia's fiscal outlook or credit quality.
Disclaimer: This is your trader's honest take, not financial advice! The bond market is a beast, and it can bite. Always do your own research, understand the risks, and consult a financial pro before you put your hard-earned cash on the line. Now, go get 'em!