Daily Morning Brew: The Recession You Ordered Is Now Being Prepared: Please Stay on the Line

A Slowdown (Without Advice)

Good morning team!

You know that moment when you check your bank account and realize your balance is exactly $6.72—and you think, “That seems low, but maybe not criminally low”? And then you scroll down and discover that your unused gym membership, your forgotten meal subscription, and that one streaming platform you swear you canceled are all still happily auto-debiting you?

Well, say hello to the U S economy right now. It’s broke, confused, and being quietly charged for optimism it forgot to unsubscribe from. And our unlikely anti-hero? A bumbling, well-meaning figure named The Recession. He’s not flashy, he’s not quick, but he’s extremely consistent. Like a tax bill wrapped in a hug. And he’s knocking on the door with a casserole labeled “stagflation.”

This isn’t a soft landing. This is a Hallmark romcom where the pilot is blindfolded, the co-pilot is emotionally unavailable, and the plane is being rebranded mid-air as a blockchain solution to inflation.

Welcome to the recession. It hasn’t been officially seated yet, but your table is definitely ready. (In 5 minutes 😉😘)

👨‍🎤🎩 A Short History of The Recession (Our Anti-Hero)

First appearing in 1873, The Recession has made special guest appearances in every decade since, usually wearing the same tattered blazer and holding a clipboard full of “revised” data. He’s the guy who shows up uninvited, eats all your leftovers, and tells your kids Santa isn’t real—but also reminds you to stop buying stocks like it’s a casino.

He was there in ‘29, wearing a monocle and quoting gold standards. He was there in 2008, watching housing markets explode like overcooked lasagna. And in 2020, he made a cameo between COVID waves, quietly high-fiving unemployment.

He’s not trying to ruin your life. He just thinks bubbles are tacky.

🌵📉 Texas Is Burning and Nobody Brought Water

It started in Texas. Our anti-hero’s opening act. Not with brisket or cowboy boots, but with manufacturing data so ugly it could curdle oat milk. Sure, the production index technically rose to five point one, which economists have generously labeled “modest growth,” but that’s like saying your house is technically fine because only one room is actively on fire.

New orders collapsed to negative twenty. Capacity utilization dipped like your motivation on a Monday. Shipments reversed. Employment? Shrinking faster than Powell's credibility during a Q and A.

And if you’re sitting in Ohio thinking, “Eh, it’s just Texas,” go ahead and Google “Texas manufacturing leads U S recessions” and prepare to cry into your cereal. This isn’t a local infection. It’s the first sneeze in a nationwide flu outbreak. And our anti-hero is walking around shaking hands.

🩺📊 Capacity Utilization and the Art of Economic Denial

Capacity utilization is one of those charts that nobody reads unless they’re about to go on Bloomberg and pretend to know what a factory is. But it’s real. And it matters. It tells us if we’re actually making stuff or just playing economic charades with outdated spreadsheets.

When it drops, it means demand is slipping. Fewer hours. Less production. Shrinking paychecks. And our anti-hero, The Recession, finds a cozy corner in the data and sets up a tent.

2Every time this happens—1990, 2001, 2008, 2020—he shows up with a clipboard and a warm smile, ready to downsize your hopes and dreams.

📦🛒 Inventorygeddon: America’s Great Hoard-and-Hope Strategy

Picture it. Q1. CEOs everywhere whispering, “Quick, buy everything before the tariffs make toner cost more than tuition.”

Imports surged. Warehouses filled. GDP numbers danced. And our anti-hero The Recession? He stood in the background, sipping iced coffee and patiently waiting. Because he knows what comes next. Inventory drawdown. Spending slowdowns. GDP correction.

This wasn’t growth. It was panic preloading. You know it. I know it. The Recession definitely knows it. He’s seen this movie before. And he brought popcorn.

🧾🔥 Tariffs: The Dumbest Tax We Pretend Is Genius

Tariffs are the sugar-free gummy bears of economic policy. They sound like a good idea, but you always regret them.

Politicians call it “leveling the playing field.” The Recession calls it “job security.” Because every time a tariff headline hits, three things happen: prices rise, supply chains scream, and economic forecasts start to sweat.

Retailers slash jobs. Ports slow down. Airlines trim capacity. Meanwhile, The Recession starts prepping a PowerPoint titled “How I Met Your Margin Compression.”

🌯🧩 The Fed’s Burrito of Pain

Jerome Powell wakes up every day to a breakfast burrito filled with contradictory data. Inflation readings, employment reports, sentiment indices, Wall Street expectations, and a tiny note from The Recession that reads: “Good luck, champ.”

He can raise rates and wreck demand. Cut rates and fuel more inflation. Or stand still and hope no one notices the smoke coming out of the yield curve.

The Recession, of course, is thrilled. No matter what the Fed does, he’s got a case of LaCroix and a beanbag chair in the bond market.

📠💬 Internal Fed Slack Leak (Unverified)

Powell: “Anyone know if cutting rates while inflation’s still above 3 percent is illegal or just frowned upon?”
Goolsbee: “Define illegal.”
RecessionBot: “LOL.”
Yellen: “Who added that thing to the chat again?”

🚫💸 What NOT to Do Right Now

• Don’t chase eight percent yields from companies named after mountain ranges.

• Don’t trust anyone who says “transitory” without blinking.

• Don’t assume tech rebounds just because your cousin’s startup finally got a website.

• Don’t short grocery stores. They’re recession MVPs.

• Don’t buy travel stocks unless your idea of fun is emotional turbulence.

🏋️‍♂️🔐 Retail Investor Survival Kit: The Barbell That Bites Back

• Keep 40 to 50 percent in ultra-safe short-term income. Think SGOV, money market funds, or literal cash in a drawer.

• Add some structured gold leasing products if you’re feeling spicy. They pay in ounces. Real, physical, clink-on-the-table gold.

• Shift toward staples and utilities. Because when vibes crash, people still eat cereal and turn on the lights.

• Stick to tech that prints cash and has no influencers on the board.

• Avoid anything that needs “hope” to make money. Hope doesn’t compound.

🗺️🔮 The Choose-Your-Own-Recession Map

• If tariffs persist → Buy GLDM and sell airlines → The Recession loves expensive fuel and empty seats.

• If tariffs get paused → Long staples and mid-grade credit → He backs off, but he’s watching.

• If the Fed hikes into slowdown → Floaters and gold → He’s already on your couch.

• If the Fed cuts while inflation sticks → Low volatility and short duration → He’s ordering takeout and staying the week.

📉😇 What If You’re Wrong? (A Love Letter to Optimists)

Let’s say this is all overblown. Tariffs roll back. GDP rebounds. Powell finds monetary Zen. Then what?

Well, you’re still in cash. Still own gold. Still have exposure to boring companies that throw off dividends like candy. In short, you didn’t YOLO into crypto at the top. You survived. You outperformed. You get to say, “I told you we needed ballast.”

Even if The Recession goes quiet, he never leaves the group chat.

🎒📉 The Recession Survival Starter Pack

• One barbell portfolio

• One gold ETF

• Three months of emergency memes

• A burner X account to yell at the Fed

• A friend who still believes in soft landings (for comedic relief)

📺🗓️ Next Week on Morning Brew

• Will Jerome blink mid-sentence?

• Has Europe entered silent recession mode?

• Will Nvidia apply for central bank status?

• Will The Recession finally release his memoir: “I Never Actually Left”?

🍽️🧾 Final Word

The Recession you ordered is no longer just preparing. He’s here. He’s setting the table. He brought a playlist.

You can ignore him. Or you can allocate around him. Either way, he’s part of the story now.

Barbell your hope. Buy boring things. Stack the kind of assets that don’t flinch when the lights go out.

Bon appétit, America.

Chef Chaos!