The Daily Morning Brew: The Great Unraveling
Tuesday, June 10, 2025. Everything is Fine, Except for All the Parts That Are On Fire
Good morning, you magnificent connoisseurs of market mayhem.
Now imagine, if you will, that the global economy is a massively successful but deeply dysfunctional rock band called "The G2." The two lead singers, The Big Orange (America) and Xi D Vicious (China), who famously hate each other but created all the hits, have agreed to court-mandated therapy sessions in London to stop them from breaking up the band entirely. The talks are "fruitful," they say, which is therapy-speak for "they haven't thrown chairs at each other... yet."
Meanwhile, back at the mansion, the band's notoriously erratic manager, Donald Trump, is sending 700 Marines to deal with a protest situation at the pool in Los Angeles, while a former bandmate, Elon Musk, is presumably somewhere plotting revenge. On Wall Street, the band's original label head, Ken Moelis, just announced he's stepping down, while other labels like Barclays are firing people and Jefferies is poaching their best talent. To cap it all off, we just discovered that the mansion's foundation—US sovereign debt—is developing some rather alarming cracks that have insurers quoting us odds usually reserved for Italian municipal bonds. It's a world where diplomatic negotiations are just one part of a sprawling, multi-front drama of corporate breakups, domestic instability, and fundamental questions about whether the whole damn building is sound. Let's sort through the backstage drama to find the signal in the noise.
The SitRep: A Dispatch from the Edge of Reason
The news flow has been a delightful cocktail of high-stakes diplomacy, corporate intrigue, and low-grade domestic chaos. Here’s your guide to the key plot points in this global soap opera:
The London Counseling Session (US-China Talks, Day 2): Our two global protagonists are extending their "fruitful" talks in London into a second day. This is less a sign of imminent breakthrough and more an admission that their problems are too numerous to solve in a single session. Washington is reportedly whispering about easing some tech export restrictions, but only if Beijing promises to keep the rare earth mineral spigot open. It's a classic transactional negotiation: "You can have the Wi-Fi password back if you promise to stop hiding the remote." The market is taking this as a positive, but remember, "not actively escalating" is the new "roaring success." The dollar sagged on the news, because nothing says "global confidence" like needing a second day just to agree on the agenda.
The Home Front: Waymo Fires and Wall Street Firings: While peace talks drone on, things at home are... spicy.
LA on Edge: The response to immigration-raid protests in Los Angeles has now escalated to the deployment of 700 US Marines. This is on top of the National Guard already there. When your domestic policy toolkit starts including elite infantry units, it tends to make capital nervous. In a direct consequence, Waymo suspended its self-driving car service in the city after several of its vehicles were set on fire. It seems the robot car future will have to wait until the human present sorts its stuff out.
The Great Reshuffling: Wall Street is playing a furious game of musical chairs. Ken Moelis, a titan of boutique banking, is stepping down as CEO of his eponymous firm. Barclays is continuing the time-honored tradition of "managing costs" by showing over 200 bankers the door. And Jefferies, smelling opportunity, is busy hiring a squadron of traders to capitalize on the chaos. This is the ecosystem in action: one firm's cost-cutting is another's talent acquisition.
Corporate Unbundling and Billion-Dollar Bills: The corporate world is in full "simplify the narrative" mode.
Warner Bros. Discovery Divorces Itself: In a move that screams "our business is too complicated and investors are confused," WBD is splitting into two separate, publicly traded companies by 2026: one for streaming/studios, one for legacy TV networks. This is an attempt to unlock value by unshackling the high-growth (but high-spend) streaming business from the profitable (but slowly dying) cable business.
Disney Pays the Hulu Tab: The Mouse House has to cough up another $438.7 million to Comcast to finally, fully own Hulu. It's the final, expensive chapter in a long and complicated streaming story.
The Real Economy vs. Asset Bubbles:
A Tough Time to Be a Grad: The job market for recent US college graduates is grim, with the unemployment rate for 22-27 year-olds hitting a four-year high of 5.8%. Companies are cutting back on entry-level roles, some of which are being vaporized by AI. This is a crucial, often-overlooked datapoint about the real health of the economy beneath the froth of the S&P 500.
Platinum's Parabolic Move: The platinum market is screaming. The metal has surged past $1,200/oz as signs of severe supply tightness emerge. The cost to borrow platinum for a month has hit a six-year high. This isn't just speculation; it's a physical market flashing red.
Diesel Fever: In Europe, traders are piling into diesel futures like never before, with open interest hitting a record. They're viewing the recent oil price slump as a golden opportunity to lock in future fuel supply on the cheap.
The Most Important Chart You're Not Watching: Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on US Treasury debt—basically, the cost to insure against a US default—are now trading at levels comparable to China, Italy, and Greece. Let that sink in. The "risk-free" asset is being priced with a risk premium that puts it in the company of nations with... complicated financial histories. This is a profound, long-term signal that global investors are getting genuinely nervous about America's fiscal trajectory.
Crypto & The Rest of the Circus:
Saylor Keeps Stacking: Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced it now holds over 582,000 Bitcoin, inspiring a legion of corporate copycats. The "Bitcoin on the balance sheet" thesis is no longer niche; it's a playbook.
Apple's "Liquid Glass" OS: At its big developer conference, Apple unveiled a slick new OS design. What it didn't unveil was any groundbreaking AI to challenge its rivals. The presentation was heavy on aesthetics, light on paradigm-shifting intelligence. The stock slipped.
RFK Jr. Cleans House at the CDC: In a move that sent shockwaves through the public health community, RFK Jr. is dismissing all 17 members of the CDC's key vaccine advisory panel, citing a need to "reestablish public confidence."
The Week Ahead: The Treachery of Data
With the US-China talks as a running narrative, the week's major pivot points are all about US data and debt.
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation (CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday): After last Friday's hot jobs report, these reports are critical. The market has reluctantly dialed back its Fed rate cut expectations. If these numbers come in hot, those bets will evaporate entirely, likely sending bonds and stocks lower. A soft print provides relief, but the market is braced for an upside surprise.
The Big Bond Auctions (10-yr Wednesday, 30-yr Thursday): Pay close attention. The 30-year auction is now a crucial sentiment indicator. Is the world still willing to lend the US money for three decades at these rates, given the rising CDS risk premium? A sloppy auction with weak demand would be a very loud, very bearish signal.
Investment Strategy: Your Blueprint for the Great Unraveling
A Quick Look Back at Yesterday's Core Ideas: Gold/Bitcoin, AI Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Strategic Minerals, Defense.
Validity Today: Stronger than ever. Rising US sovereign risk makes Gold/Bitcoin more attractive. The solar company bankruptcies underscore the need for baseload Nuclear. The London talks' focus on Minerals proves the thesis. The Wall Street Journal opinion piece on the US aerospace trade surplus reinforces the Defense play.
Today's Core Trades: Your 12-Month+ "Anti-Fragility" Portfolio
The core philosophy here is to own the things that are scarce, essential, and benefit from systemic chaos and the great unraveling of the old world order.
Sovereign Risk Hedges (Gold & Bitcoin):
Rationale: These are no longer just "inflation hedges." They are now "fiscal sanity hedges." With US CDS spreads widening to levels once reserved for the Eurozone's problem children, the market is beginning to price in genuine long-term risk to US debt. Owning assets that sit outside the traditional government-controlled financial system is becoming a paramount long-term strategy.
Why Now? The CDS story is a slow-burning fire that most of the market is ignoring. By the time it becomes front-page news, these assets will have already repriced.
The New Industrial Revolution (AI Infrastructure & Nuclear Power):
Rationale: The AI buildout is a brute-force industrial project on a scale we haven't seen in decades. It requires two things above all: mountains of specialized Silicon (SMH) and oceans of reliable Power. The solar bankruptcies show that intermittent renewables alone can't power this revolution. That leaves Nuclear (URNM) as the only viable, carbon-free, 24/7 option.
Why Now? This is a multi-decade capital investment cycle. Every major AI announcement implicitly underwrites the bull case for the power and hardware companies that make it possible.
The "My Stuff is Better Than Your Stuff" Basket (US Aerospace & Global Luxury):
Rationale: In a fragmenting world, own the industries with unassailable moats and global pricing power. The US Defense & Aerospace (ITA) sector runs a massive trade surplus and its products are non-negotiable for allies. Similarly, top-tier Global Luxury (a basket of LVMH, Hermes, Ferrari) brands have proven their ability to raise prices regardless of economic conditions, acting as their own class of inflation-proof assets.
Why Now? This is a play on durable, high-margin, non-commoditized global leadership in an increasingly competitive world.
The "Price-Gouging" Portfolio (Private Credit & Commodity Traders):
Rationale: With banks pulling back, Private Credit funds (Business Development Companies like ARCC, MAIN) are stepping in to lend to companies at high rates. They are the new banks. Meanwhile, commodity market dislocations (like in platinum and diesel) are creating massive arbitrage opportunities for the big Commodity Trading houses (like Glencore, Trafigura if you can access them, or ETFs that track them).
Why Now? This is a direct bet on volatility and dislocation being profitable for those positioned to exploit it.
Today's Tactical Trades: Alpha Hunting in the Rubble (Short-Term)
Nimble plays on this week's news flow. These are not forever-holds.
The Platinum Squeeze (Long PPLT):
Rationale: The platinum market is exhibiting classic signs of a physical squeeze. The cost to borrow the metal is spiking, and ETF holdings are rising. This indicates powerful momentum driven by industrial demand and supply tightness that could have further to run.
Why Now & Access: Clear, strong momentum in a physical commodity market. PPLT is a physically-backed platinum ETF. Invalidation Catalyst: A sharp reversal in borrowing costs or a resolution of the underlying supply issue.
The "Apple AI Disappointment" Fade (Sell AAPL):
Rationale: Apple's WWDC keynote was heavy on slick design ("Liquid Glass") but critically light on the kind of generative AI firepower that has propelled its rivals. The market reaction was muted disappointment. This could be the start of a multi-day "narrative failure" trade, where investors who were hoping for a major AI catalyst sell off.
Why Now & Access: The event just happened. The narrative is fresh. This can be played with put options or simply selling the stock. Invalidation Catalyst: A surprise announcement later in the week of a deeper, more impressive AI partnership or feature set.
The "Post-Grad Blues" Trade (Sell/avoid Retail/Consumer Discretionary):
Rationale: The tough job market for recent college grads is a canary in the coal mine for consumer spending. This cohort drives trends and aspirational spending. If they're struggling, it signals future weakness for non-essential retailers. This is a bet that the market is too focused on headline employment and ignoring this leading indicator.
Why Now & Access: A fresh, under-the-radar data point that contradicts the more optimistic "soft landing" narrative. An inverse ETF like SAD could be used. Invalidation Catalyst: A strong, broad-based recovery in consumer sentiment data.
The Wall Street Shakeup Arbitrage (Long Jefferies (JEF), Sell Barclays (BCS)):
Rationale: A classic pairs trade based on strategic momentum. Barclays is in cost-cutting mode, shedding talent. Jefferies is in expansion mode, explicitly hiring traders to capitalize on the moment. This is a bet that Jefferies' aggressive strategy will allow it to gain market share at Barclays' expense.
Why Now & Access: Based on direct, concurrent news about the strategic direction of both firms. Invalidation Catalyst: Barclays announces a surprise strategic reversal or Jefferies' expansion proves too costly.
The Mic Drop: Embrace the Unraveling
Look around. The old, comfortable world of predictable growth, stable geopolitics, and risk-free assets is actively unraveling before our eyes. The US is borrowing like a drunken sailor while its credit rating is being quietly compared to Greece's. Corporations are breaking themselves apart because the old synergies no longer make sense. Billionaires are feuding like reality TV stars, and the robots are simultaneously taking our jobs and setting themselves on fire.
This is not a temporary glitch. This is the new operating system. The winners in this era will not be those who predict the next headline, but those who understand the deeper, structural shifts at play: the flight from sovereign debt, the brutal energy requirements of the new tech revolution, and the return of hard power and physical scarcity. Your job is to stop mourning the old market and start exploiting the new one. The Great Unraveling is messy, chaotic, and terrifying. It's also where all the opportunity now lies. Good luck.
This document is for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, a cry for help, or a viable political manifesto. We are not responsible if you short US Treasuries based on this note, only for them to be suddenly backed by the full faith and credit of the 700 Marines currently stationed in Los Angeles. Any attempt to use this analysis to actually manage money may result in sudden, spectacular, and deeply ironic financial losses. If you are seeking professional guidance, please consult someone who does not think "dysfunctional rock band" is a valid macroeconomic framework. Do your own research. Seriously. Don't make us send the band's manager.